Topic
Central banks. Inflation prints. Yield curves. The macro story is usually told in jargon that smuggles in assumptions most readers never get to question. These issues unpack what the numbers actually say — and where the consensus is wrong.
7 issues in this topic
The Federal Reserve spent 2022 and 2023 raising rates aggressively to kill inflation. Now it faces a much harder problem: inflation is still above target, but t…
Read issue →In 2022, economists predicted a recession by end of 2023. In 2023, they moved the forecast to 2024. In 2024, the consensus said Q1 2025. We're now in early 2026…
Read issue →Bond markets don't shout. They adjust yields. And right now, long-term US Treasury yields are climbing in a way that has less to do with near-term rate expectat…
Read issue →High interest rates were supposed to cool the housing market. They did, in the sense that transactions collapsed. What they didn't do was make housing more affo…
Read issue →Every few years, a new candidate for dollar replacement emerges. The euro. The renminbi. A basket of BRICS currencies. Crypto. Each time, the dollar survives. U…
Read issue →The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index doesn't make front pages, but it has a better track record than most Wall Street forecasts. Right now, it's telling a sto…
Read issue →Tariffs are back at the center of economic policy debate. Proponents argue they protect domestic industry and generate revenue. Critics say they're a tax on con…
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