DailyBrief: April 2

Markets & Economics

One Year of Liberation Day Tariffs: Job Losses, Higher Prices, and a Broken Promise
A year after President Trump signed his sweeping "Liberation Day" tariff executive order on April 2, 2025, the economic evidence points to a largely negative outcome. The U.S. manufacturing sector shed roughly 89,000 jobs in the ten months following the announcement, with factory activity contracting for eight consecutive months. Average households paid an estimated $1,700 more in tariff-related costs between February 2025 and January 2026, with analysts estimating 90-95% of tariff costs were passed on to consumers. The goods trade deficit, which the tariffs were designed to close, widened to an all-time high of $1.24 trillion in 2025. In February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority under IEEPA for portions of the tariff regime, setting off plans to refund approximately $166 billion in wrongly-collected duties. Source: KPBS / NPR
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IEA Warns Oil Supply Crunch to Intensify in April as Hormuz Flows Collapse
The International Energy Agency warned Wednesday that April will be "much worse than March" for global oil supplies, as the U.S.-Iran war continues to choke off flows through the Strait of Hormuz. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as "the greatest global energy security challenge in history," noting that Gulf countries have cut more than 11 million barrels per day of production and that, unlike in March when pre-war tanker cargoes were still arriving at ports, "in April, there is nothing." Brent crude is trading near $120 per barrel, approaching its 2008 record of $147, and some Wall Street analysts have raised the prospect of prices reaching $200 a barrel if the Strait remains blocked past mid-April. The IEA also announced a coordinated strategic reserve release, but analysts warn it cannot substitute for the lost supply. Source: CNBC
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Nike Shares Fall 15% on Weak Guidance and Expected 20% China Revenue Decline
Nike shares closed down 15.5% Wednesday after the company posted fiscal Q3 results that beat earnings estimates but delivered a deeply pessimistic forward outlook. Revenue is guided to fall 2-4% in the current quarter and decline in the low single digits for the rest of the calendar year, against analyst expectations of 2% growth. The company cited a 20% expected drop in China revenues in the current quarter, tariff-driven gross margin compression of 1.3 percentage points to 40.2%, and broader consumer caution tied to the global energy shock. The results signal mounting earnings risk for large consumer multinationals navigating the combination of tariff headwinds and oil-price-driven inflation. Source: CNBC
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S&P 500 Slips 0.52% as Investors Weigh Iran Ceasefire Signals and Fed Holds Steady
The S&P 500 fell 0.52% Thursday to close at 6,541, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.48%, as markets processed mixed signals on a potential diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict. Gains in gold miners, travel stocks, and SanDisk (up roughly 9%) were offset by weakness in energy and consumer shares. The index is down about 4.6% for the month of April to date. The Federal Reserve, which held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50-3.75% at its March 18 meeting, is not expected to act again until April 29. Chair Powell has indicated that the oil-price shock complicates the inflation outlook and the Fed's forecast for just one rate cut in 2026, underscoring that monetary easing remains on hold until the energy picture clarifies. Source: CNBC / Trading Economics
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Tech & AI

Nvidia Invests $2 Billion in Marvell, Launching "NVLink Fusion" Custom AI Chip Platform
Nvidia announced a $2 billion equity investment in Marvell Technology on April 1, anchoring a multi-year partnership around a new platform called NVLink Fusion. The deal allows Marvell's custom AI accelerators, or XPUs, to integrate directly into Nvidia's high-speed interconnect fabric alongside its Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs in the same server rack, communicating at up to 1.8 terabytes per second. Rather than competing against the growing wave of custom silicon that hyperscalers are designing in-house, Nvidia is now folding those designs into its own ecosystem, cementing its role as the infrastructure architect of the AI stack rather than purely a GPU supplier. Marvell shares surged 11% on the news, and Nvidia rose 6% on April 1 following a series of similar strategic investments. Source: American Bazaar Online
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Q1 2026 Global Venture Funding Hits Record $297 Billion, With AI Claiming 81% of Capital
Global venture investment reached $297 billion in Q1 2026, up more than 150% year-over-year and the highest quarterly total ever recorded, according to Crunchbase data released Tuesday. AI companies captured 81% of that total, with four deals alone accounting for 65% of global VC: OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, Anthropic raised $30 billion at $380 billion, xAI raised $20 billion, and Waymo raised $16 billion. TechCrunch notes the quarter reflects a structural shift in venture capital, with money flowing increasingly toward AI companies generating real revenue and deployed products rather than early-stage research bets, while the sheer scale of frontier model funding continues to compress available capital for everything else. Source: TechCrunch / Crunchbase
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