DailyBrief: April 12
CPI surges to 3.3%, consumer sentiment hits record low, Oracle cuts 30,000
Markets & Economics
U.S. Inflation Spikes to 3.3% in March as Iran War Drives Record Gas Price Jump
The Consumer Price Index surged 0.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.3%, up sharply from 2.4% in February. Gasoline prices rose a record 21.2% during the month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall monthly increase — the first CPI report since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose a more modest 0.2% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year, in line with consensus forecasts. Economists warn the April print could be even worse, as much of the oil price shock from the Strait of Hormuz blockade had yet to fully filter through to consumers when March prices were measured. Source: CNBC
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Triggers Oil Plunge, But Fragility Sends Prices Rebounding
U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7, just before Trump's threatened military deadline, sending oil prices plunging 16.4% in a single session, the biggest one-day drop since 2020, and delivering the Dow its best day in a year. However, the relief was short-lived. By April 10, crude had climbed back to just below $100 per barrel as the ceasefire frayed: Iran has not fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with ships reportedly being charged tolls of more than $1 million per vessel to transit. The ceasefire also explicitly excludes ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon, adding further uncertainty. Energy stocks extended losses, with Exxon Mobil down more than 5.5% and APA shedding more than 9% over the period, while airline stocks — led by Delta Air Lines, which gained 12% — surged on lower fuel cost expectations. Source: CNBC
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Collapses to All-Time Low of 47.6 in April
The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for April fell to 47.6, the lowest reading in the survey's 70-plus-year history, down from 53.3 in March. The prior record low was 50, set at the peak of Biden-era inflation. Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.8% from 3.8%, while longer-run inflation expectations, of particular concern to the Federal Reserve, ticked up to 3.4% from 3.2%. Notably, most of the survey interviews were completed before the April 7 ceasefire, suggesting the data primarily captures the shock of soaring gasoline prices and war-driven uncertainty rather than any ceasefire relief. Source: CNBC
Fed Widely Expected to Hold Rates at April 28-29 Meeting as Inflation Remains Elevated
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate target at 3.5% to 3.75% at its March 18 meeting, and market pricing as of early April gives a 98.4% probability to another hold at the upcoming April 28-29 FOMC session. The latest CPI data, showing annual inflation at 3.3% and energy-driven pressure still building, has further reduced the likelihood of any near-term rate cuts. The Fed's dilemma is acute: core inflation is still running above target while consumer sentiment and growth expectations deteriorate, and the war-driven energy shock adds both inflationary pressure and downside growth risk simultaneously. Source: Federal Reserve / CME FedWatch
Tech & AI
Oracle Cuts Up to 30,000 Jobs to Bankroll AI Infrastructure Push
Oracle laid off between 20,000 and 30,000 employees, roughly 18% of its global workforce, in a sweeping reduction announced via a 6 a.m. email on April 1. The company's stated aim: freeing up an estimated $8 to $10 billion in cash flow for AI data center construction. Affected employees in the U.S., Canada, India, and other regions were immediately locked out of internal systems upon receiving the notice. In India alone, approximately 10,000 positions were eliminated. The cuts contributed to a running total of nearly 80,000 tech sector job losses in the first quarter of 2026, with AI automation and infrastructure realignment cited as the primary drivers across the industry. Source: CNBC
Global AI Venture Funding Smashes Records in Q1 2026, Reaching $300 Billion
Investors poured a record $300 billion into approximately 6,000 startups globally in the first quarter of 2026, up more than 150% year-over-year, with AI companies claiming the dominant share. The headline deals: OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion, while Anthropic raised $30 billion in a Series G led by GIC and Coatue at a $380 billion valuation. Collectively, foundational AI startups raised $178 billion in Q1 alone, doubling the total for all of 2025. The capital surge is reshaping hiring patterns across the industry, accelerating infrastructure build-outs, and intensifying competitive pressure on legacy enterprise technology vendors. Source: Crunchbase